Turim’s Insights

In our first webinar of 2023, the economy continues to feel the impacts of the remarkable events of the previous year, such as political polarization in Brazil, the Russo-Ukrainian War and the rise in interest rates on a global scale.

However, considerable changes are starting to be implemented on the Asian continent: in particular, the reopening of borders in China.

This movement directly impacts the global oil market, explains our partner and strategist Nelson Abrahao, since the country’s main imports are commodities and circuits.

“The reopening of China will sustain the price of oil at high levels. This fact tends to put even more inflationary pressure, but this is no longer the biggest concern in the short term. It is positive news, good for global growth and for partners emerging commercial centers such as Brazil”, stresses Abrahão.

In the internal scenario, inflation ended the year above the target ceiling, even with a decrease in commodities. When analyzing the expectations of the Focus report, released by the Central Bank of Brazil, Abrahão points out two important movements of the current government: the PEC of the transition and the revocation of the ceiling for the entry of a new fiscal rule.

According to the expert, such measures brought fiscal uncertainty, leading the market to revise interest rates upwards for this year and next.

The webinar also had the participation of Leonardo Martins Moraes, co-CEO; Fernando Verboonen, CIO; and Lucas Panaro, fund analyst at Turim UK.