Turim’s Insights

In our last monthly webinar of 2022, we remember the main events that impacted national and global economies this year.

“In the midst of an atypical year, we experienced the most polarized elections in Brazil, war in Ukraine, widespread interest rate hikes, significant achievements in the variable and fixed income markets, in addition to the return of Covid-19 in China. These were themes that marked the year and permeated our monthly webinars”, explains our co-CEO Leonardo Martins Moraes.

In November, the highlight goes to the slowdown in global activity, according to the assessment of our economist Thiago Campos. For him, this movement is even perceived in activity data from Asia – notably in the slowdown in exports from important countries to global production chains.

With regard to monetary policy, the main central banks are taking the first steps to reduce the pace of the interest rate hike cycle, entering a “fine-tuning” phase to determine their terminal rates.

“This comes from a context not only of a slowdown in activity, but also of inflation that seems to have peaked. It is a propitious scenario, however, there are two separate discussions: the first, on the pace of (interest) hikes, and the second, on the terminal rate”, evaluates Campos.

The webinar also featured the participation of Rodrigo Louro, CEO of Turim UK, and Henrique Santos (CFA), Turim’s portfolio manager.