Turim’s Insights

In the first post-election webinar, our specialists analyze the current scenario in Brazil and assess the market’s reactions to the new government that will take over in January 2023.

With the Transition PEC – proposed amendment to the Constitution in which the president-elect wants a loophole in the Spending Ceiling to maintain the R$600 social benefit –, the tax agenda is back in the spotlight. The big question is how this measure will affect the country’s economy and debt.

“The moment is one of uncertainty in relation to fiscal measures, about what kind of fiscal anchor we are going to use, especially if something changes in the issue of the spending ceiling – which was so important for the convergence of lower interest rates in the country”, points out our strategist Nelson Abraham.

On the international scene, Abrahão signals the behavior of Central Banks in relation to interest rate adjustment, which is now at a slowdown pace: “This has been happening due to concern with economies that are more sensitive to interest rate hikes, such as Norway, Australia and Canada, that depend mainly on the real estate market”.

The new cases of Covid continue to generate uncertainty in the world. This Friday morning, China eased restrictions related to the “covid zero” policy, but if the Chinese government closes again, it could affect economic activity.

The webinar also featured Gustavo Marini, founder of Turim MFO; Fernando Verboonen, CIO; and Pedro Hokama, Equity analyst.