Turim’s Insights

In this month’s webinar, our team talked about the internal scenario, whose dynamic remains delicate due to fiscal uncertainties related to next year’s budget and the water crisis, in addition to the global situation – especially regarding the Covid-19’s 3rd wave around the world.

Henrique Santos, our economist, highlighted that even with the speed of the vaccination process, the spread of the pandemic is still a warning point.

“This wave also affected countries in East Asia, which are relevant centers in the global supply chain for the industry. What has been a problem since the beginning of the pandemic, the lack of parts in the production lines, in particular for cars, has worsened,” said Santos.

On the domestic agenda, our economist pointed out that activity in 2021 has been better than expected, but the second quarter brought a negative GDP surprise, resulting in moderation in market growth projections. On the water crisis, he added that the current situation requires a lot of attention: “Although less than in the past, the energy matrix in Brazil is still very dependent on hydroelectric plants. The lack of rain has resulted in the activation of more expensive thermal power plants, generating an immediate impact on inflation, via the tariff flag system. If the rainy season that starts in November is below average, the concern about rationing tends to increase a lot”.

Also participated in the webinar Gustavo Marini, founder and co-CEO; Fernando Verboonen, portfolio manager; and Rodrigo Louro, responsible for Turim UK and head of research.