Turim Insights

The resilient performance of the American economy, prospects for the new Trump administration, and the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real were some of the key topics discussed in this month’s #VisãoTurim webinar.

In the United States, economic growth continued to surprise, with 256,000 jobs created in December, well above expectations, and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. At the same time, there was a slight increase in inflation expectations, driven by positive surprises in fourth-quarter data and potential Trump administration measures regarding tariffs and immigration. In this scenario, the market is already pricing in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to maintain the federal funds rate at the January meeting.

In Brazil, the sharp depreciation of the Real was the main highlight in December. The currency reached a historic high, hitting R$6.30 and closing the year at R$6.18. The decline in market confidence, exacerbated by the joint announcement of a spending cut package and an expansion of the income tax exemption threshold, combined with a record outflow of U.S. dollars, prompted the Central Bank to intervene multiple times in the foreign exchange market throughout the month. Although dollar outflows typically increase in December, the volumes recorded in 2024 far exceeded those of previous years.

Besides the currency, other asset classes also showed underwhelming returns in the local market. Among the highlights, only the private credit market (represented by the IDA-DI index) managed to outperform the CDI benchmark in 2024, despite experiencing a decline in the last two months of the year.

The webinar featured the participation of Fernando Verboonen, CIO of Turim, Thiago Campos, Economist, and Pedro Hokama, Head of Liquid Assets.